ANALYSIS: DA Ekurhuleni breakthrough exposes uncomfortable truth about ANC, says Tessa Dooms
Political analyst Tessa Dooms says the DA's historic breakthrough in Ekurhuleni has been driven partly by the ANC's dramatic decline and growing voter disillusionment.
Kabous Le Roux
Democratic Alliance (DA) supporters rally behind the party as it makes history in Ekurhuleni, becoming the metro's largest political party for the first time amid a dramatic decline in ANC support. (ILARIA FINIZIO / AFP)
The Democratic Alliance (DA) has become the largest party in Ekurhuleni for the first time, but the electoral breakthrough may say as much about the African National Congress's (ANC) declining support as it does about the opposition party's own growth.
Political analyst Tessa Dooms, Director of the Rivonia Circle, says the ANC's dramatic decline has been a defining feature of the local government election results, with disillusioned voters increasingly looking for alternatives.
Speaking to CapeTalk, Dooms said the DA had experienced some growth in Ekurhuleni, but its improved position was largely the result of the ANC's declining support.
She contrasted the DA's performance in Ekurhuleni with its showing in Johannesburg, where the party had not experienced significant growth in its actual number of voters when compared with its 2016 baseline.
"I think Ekurhuleni is slightly different for the DA in that there is a bit of a growth pattern there," Dooms said.
"But really what has determined the DA's power grab in this election has been the tanking of the ANC at such a fast and dramatic rate."
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Voters are disappointed, not necessarily hopeful
Dooms believes the election results reflect widespread disillusionment with the political system rather than an enthusiastic endorsement of a particular party.
Asked whether voters had supported capable government or voted against incapable government, she argued that neither explanation fully captured the mood.
"It was neither. In some senses, it was a disillusionment with the incumbents," she said.
"There was more disappointment in this election than there was hope."
Dooms said some voters had stayed away from the polls, while others had sought to punish the ANC by supporting alternative parties.
She identified ActionSA and the MK Party as having played an important role in providing traditional ANC voters with alternatives.
Both parties, she said, had attracted voters who were disillusioned with the ANC but were not yet convinced about the DA.
The DA had consequently benefited from the changing political landscape, putting it in a stronger position.
"I think that's the story of this election," Dooms said, referring to the ANC's electoral decline.
Helen Zille's return sends a message
Dooms also pointed to Helen Zille's return to local government politics as an important factor in how the DA presented itself to voters.
Although Zille ran in Johannesburg, Dooms said her candidacy helped reinforce the party's message that it was serious about governing at the local level.
She argued that voters were looking for a sense of certainty and seriousness amid widespread disappointment.
Dooms said Zille represented someone who had consistently acted according to her convictions, making her a figure whose actions voters could anticipate, whether they agreed with her or not.
"Even if you don't like what she's done, you know that if she says something, that she's probably going to do it," she said.
Dooms added that bringing a national and provincial political figure back into local government demonstrated a willingness to take municipal politics seriously.
Coalition deals should put competence first
With parties facing negotiations over coalition arrangements in Gauteng's metros, Dooms warned against treating municipalities as bargaining chips in national political negotiations.
She said parties could end up dividing metros between themselves through political horse-trading, rather than considering the specific needs of individual municipalities.
For coalitions to function, she argued, negotiations should take account of local issues, the balance of power and the competence of elected representatives.
Dooms used Tshwane as an example, saying it would be a mistake for Nasiphi Moya to be overlooked if she was the most competent candidate simply because political parties were trying to secure a separate deal elsewhere.
She argued that coalition arrangements should prioritise appointing the people best equipped to serve as mayors and members of mayoral committees.
ActionSA and DA tensions could complicate negotiations
Dooms also discussed the strained relationship between ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba and Zille.
She said ActionSA had indicated that it was willing to work with the DA, provided Zille was not an option.
While she described the focus on personalities as unhelpful, she said the position also suggested that ActionSA was open to some form of negotiation.
Dooms expressed concern that the two leaders had not managed to share a stage or sit in the same room during the election campaign, despite both being elected councillors in Johannesburg.
She said a greater degree of maturity would be needed if they were to work together in the municipality.
PA loses ground to community-based parties
Dooms also pointed to the Patriotic Alliance's performance in parts of Johannesburg where it had previously enjoyed strong support.
She said the party had made significant gains in 2021 and subsequent by-elections, particularly in previously coloured areas.
However, she argued that the PA had lost support not only to the DA but also to community-based political organisations.
In Eldorado Park, for example, the Community First Movement secured 12% of the vote, substantially eating into the PA's support.
Dooms said the PA should reflect on why its councillors were no longer trusted in areas where the party had previously been strong.
She added that the results highlighted the growing presence of smaller, community-based parties and the role they could play in local government.