Coalition talks: Unlikely alliances and political horse-trading loom
Small parties could hold the balance of power in South Africa's major metros, with coalition negotiations likely to involve political horse-trading and unlikely alliances, says Mandy Wiener.
Kabous Le Roux
South Africa's political rivals may soon have to put their differences aside and find common ground. (Picture credit: dmitrydemidovich/123rf)
dmitrydemidovich/123rf
Small political parties could wield considerable influence in determining who governs South Africa's major metros after the local government elections, with coalition negotiations likely to involve political horse-trading and unlikely alliances.
702/CapeTalk’s Mandy Wiener, author of The Deal: Inside the Talks that Shaped South Africa's Future, says the smaller parties could emerge as kingmakers in municipalities such as Johannesburg, where no single party is likely to secure an outright majority.
She said the prospect of numerous parties holding the balance of power could make coalition negotiations particularly complicated.
"I think you'll see some unlikely bedfellows getting together in the metros," she said.
Wiener, who reported extensively on the negotiations that led to the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) in 2024, said political parties would have to put their differences aside to negotiate governing arrangements.
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Small parties could hold the balance of power
Wiener said parties with relatively few seats could have significant leverage during coalition negotiations, particularly in municipalities where the larger parties cannot govern without additional support.
She pointed to the City of Johannesburg, where Al Jama-ah previously secured the mayoral position despite having only one seat in the council.
"And that's because we don't have a threshold," Wiener said.
She explained that some countries have electoral thresholds that prevent parties with very limited support from entering coalition arrangements.
South Africa has no such threshold, leaving smaller parties in a position to negotiate for influence in municipal governments.
"That means that smaller parties really hold this kingmaker role," Wiener said.
She added that smaller parties could be offered positions as members of mayoral committees (MMCs) in exchange for their support.
Wiener cited the example of Kenny Kunene's involvement in the City of Johannesburg and the previous Al Jama-ah mayoralty as illustrations of the influence smaller parties can exercise.
Political horse-trading across municipalities
Coalition negotiations could also extend beyond individual municipalities, with parties potentially exchanging support in different metros to secure positions elsewhere.
Wiener said this had happened during the previous local government coalition negotiations in Gauteng.
"We have seen it happen in the past with the last local government elections in Gauteng, where there was leverage that was exercised, for example, in Ekurhuleni in exchange for support in Tshwane," she said.
She suggested that similar arrangements could emerge again, with parties negotiating support for mayoral candidates in different municipalities.
The possibility of multiple municipalities being negotiated simultaneously creates additional opportunities for political bargaining.
However, Wiener argued that the complexity of these arrangements highlighted the need for stronger safeguards and legislation governing coalition agreements.
She said she had spoken to several European ambassadors who were surprised by the lack of legislation regulating coalition negotiations in South Africa.
In Belgium, she noted, coalition negotiations can take 18 months and involve a 200-page coalition agreement.
South Africa, meanwhile, is still waiting for its coalition legislation to come into effect.
ANC divisions could complicate negotiations
The ANC's internal political dynamics could also influence which parties it is prepared to work with, particularly in Gauteng.
Wiener said President Cyril Ramaphosa had played a central role in securing the GNU agreement in 2024, despite considerable resistance within the ANC.
She described Ramaphosa as the architect of the national government arrangement, saying he had been strategic in managing the negotiations.
"The ANC was very strategic in the way that they negotiated. They got all the different parties into separate rooms. They didn't get them into one room. They ran the clock down," she said.
However, with Ramaphosa's tenure approaching its end and the ANC's elective conference scheduled for the end of next year, his influence within the party could weaken.
Wiener pointed to the Gauteng ANC's opposition to working with the DA as a potential obstacle to coalition arrangements in Johannesburg and other municipalities.
"We could see a situation where there could be a DA-ANC coalition in Johannesburg or in Ekurhuleni or in Tshwane, but the Gauteng ANC is a different beast to the national ANC," she said.
She added that the ANC could find itself working with different political partners at national, provincial and municipal levels.
Lessons from the 2024 GNU negotiations
Wiener said the 2024 negotiations had demonstrated how difficult it could be for political parties to put aside their differences and establish working relationships.
Despite the fierce political exchanges during election campaigns, parties had to find a way to negotiate once the results were announced.
She said interpersonal relationships played a crucial role in making those discussions possible.
Wiener recalled that political parties had not established proper communication channels ahead of the 2024 election results, leaving them to organise negotiations under considerable time pressure.
There had been only 14 days to elect a president, forcing parties that had previously been at odds to sit down together.
She said there could be lessons from those negotiations for the upcoming municipal coalition talks, although the number of municipalities and political relationships involved would make the process more complicated.
The DA's negotiating structures could also look different this time around, following disagreements within the party during the 2024 GNU negotiations.
Wiener said the party's federal executive, chaired by Helen Zille during those negotiations, had exercised overarching authority, a situation that had caused disagreements with members of its negotiating team.
She suggested that under the leadership of Geordin Hill-Lewis, the DA might approach the process differently.
With coalition negotiations expected in numerous municipalities, Wiener said the coming weeks could produce some surprising political partnerships.