South Africa could face more than 100 hung councils: What happens next?
Political researcher Tasneem Essop examines voter turnout, coalition negotiations and declining trust in institutions as South Africa awaits local election results.
Kabous Le Roux
Political researcher Tasneem Essop examines voter turnout, coalition negotiations and declining trust in institutions as South Africa awaits local election results.
South Africa could face more than 100 hung councils following the local government elections, setting the stage for potentially weeks of coalition negotiations as political parties wait for the final results and allocation of seats.
Political researcher Tasneem Essop says coalition arrangements are likely to become the main focus once the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) has completed the counting process and announced the results.
Speaking on 702, Essop said the number of seats allocated to each political party would be crucial in determining which coalition arrangements were possible.
"We're looking at over 100 hung councils, potentially," she said.
Coalitions had already been a major talking point ahead of election day, but the final results would determine how political parties approached negotiations.
"The percentage point matters… the number of seats that are allocated matters," Essop said.
She added that the allocation of seats could significantly change the calculations for political parties.
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Voter turnout could influence closely contested races
Essop said voter turnout was one of the biggest factors to watch as the election results came in, particularly in closely contested metropolitan areas.
Although the final turnout figure had not yet been declared at the time of the interview, the available figures suggested participation would be higher than in the 2021 local government elections but would probably not reach 2016 levels.
Essop said turnout could ultimately determine the outcome of some of the closely fought races.
"I think turnout is one of the biggest swing factors in a local government election," she said.
"It can actually determine, especially in races that are so hotly contested as the metropolitan areas that we're looking at in this election; it can determine the outcome."
She pointed to Gauteng, where turnout appeared to have been relatively strong.
Essop said the broader issue of voter disengagement was important, but the immediate focus should also be on understanding how participation would influence individual election results.
Why South Africa's election results take time
The pace of South Africa's vote-counting process has also attracted attention, particularly given the timing of the elections alongside the US midterm elections.
However, Essop cautioned against assuming that American election results were always declared quickly, saying some closely contested races in the US could take several days to resolve.
She explained that South Africa followed a different process, with votes counted by hand and party observers involved in the process.
"We have observers. Our votes are counted by hand. There's a whole process, and this is all publicly available information if anyone wants to find out about that process," she said.
Essop said the process included counting votes at voting stations in the presence of party observers, with the results slip posted publicly before the information was submitted to the IEC.
She added that the IEC had seven days to declare an election, although the results were usually announced before that deadline.
Potential disputes over results could also affect the timing of the final announcement.
Essop said contestations were possible in some areas, as had happened following the previous national election.
Declining trust in the IEC a concern
Beyond the immediate election results and coalition negotiations, Essop also highlighted declining public trust in institutions responsible for administering South Africa's democracy.
She referred to an opinion survey, which she tentatively attributed to the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), that examined public trust in the IEC and other institutions.
While cautioning that she could not definitively recall the source, she said the findings pointed to declining trust over time.
"And we've seen that declining over time," Essop said.
She described this as a concern, particularly when it came to public confidence in the institutions responsible for running elections and upholding democratic processes.
Accepting election results remains important
Essop said it was also important to distinguish between legitimate concerns about the electoral system and the broader acceptance of election outcomes.
While disputes and challenges could emerge as results were announced, she said South Africa had generally demonstrated an acceptance of electoral outcomes over time.
In her view, this remained an important feature of a functioning democratic system.
She said discussions about election disputes should focus on the specific challenges within the electoral system, while recognising the importance of accepting the outcome of the democratic process.
What happens next will depend largely on the final results, the allocation of seats and the coalition negotiations that follow.
As political parties prepare to negotiate in councils where no party secures an outright majority, the outcome of those discussions will shape the next phase of local government across South Africa.