South Africa's Black elite is reshaping the country's political landscape, says analyst
Political economist Dr Ismail Lagardien examines how class divisions are shaping South Africa's election trends, from middle-class voters protecting the status quo to growing working-class disillusionment.
Kabous Le Roux
A mother and her child blow bubbles outside their suburban home, illustrating the class divisions and changing social landscape at the centre of political economist Dr Ismail Lagardien's analysis of South Africa's election trends. (Picture credit: wavebreakmediamicro/123rf)
wavebreakmediamicro/123rf
Political economist Dr Ismail Lagardien believes early election trends point to an increasingly important class divide in South African politics, with middle-class voters more inclined to protect their existing circumstances while many working-class voters have become resigned to government failures.
Speaking on CapeTalk during an interview about the emerging election trends, Lagardien said middle-class voters generally tended to be better educated, more politically aware and more engaged with politics and the media.
He argued that this translated into a tendency to vote for the status quo, particularly among people living in suburban areas where local government services were functioning relatively well.
"One of the things about the middle-class vote is it tends to be a status quo vote," Lagardien said.
He explained that middle-class voters often wanted to preserve the conditions they enjoyed in their own neighbourhoods.
"Things are working well in my suburb, so let me keep it that way, let me make sure that it stays that way."
Lagardien added that this voting behaviour could also be driven by a desire to avoid the circumstances experienced in other communities.
"People look out towards other areas and say, we don't want to be like them," he said.
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Working-class voters have become resigned, says Lagardien
Lagardien offered a contrasting explanation for the apparent lower participation of working-class voters, particularly those living in townships.
He said many had become increasingly frustrated with the failures of local and national government, leading to a sense of resignation about their circumstances.
"And as for the township vote, I think there's a lot of exasperation, a lot of resignation, and people have seen the failures at local government, at national government, and they've just kind of resigned themselves.”
He suggested that some voters had effectively accepted that this was simply the situation they found themselves in.
"This is just the time that we're in, and they've given up."
Lagardien said the differences between middle-class and working-class voters needed to be understood in the context of South Africa's broader social and economic realities.
Growing Black elite changes South Africa's class dynamics
While class offered a useful way of understanding political behaviour, Lagardien cautioned against treating the country's class divisions as straightforward.
He noted that, at the beginning of democracy in 1994, the middle classes consisted predominantly of white South Africans, alongside some coloured and Black people.
He said the economic changes during the Thabo Mbeki and Trevor Manuel era had contributed to an expansion of the working class.
However, Lagardien argued that the growth of a Black elite had also changed the country's class structure.
"Instead of a Black working class growing significantly, there was a Black elite that was grown, and they were incorporated into what is essentially the white wealthy or middle classes."
He said unemployment remained higher among people with lower levels of education, highlighting the importance of considering economic inequality and the country's spatial divisions when analysing voting patterns.
ANC's declining support could benefit the DA
Turning to the early national election results, Lagardien said the ANC's declining support was one of the biggest surprises.
At the time of the interview, with around 20% of the national vote counted, the ANC was polling at 31.5%, while the DA was approaching 30%.
Lagardien rejected suggestions that the DA had reached a ceiling of below 30% support.
He argued that many traditional ANC voters could shift their support to the DA, largely because of what he described as the ANC's failures in government.
"Traditionally, ANC voters will vote for the DA, in part because of the DA's messaging, but mainly because the ANC has been such a diabolical failure across the board."
He expected the ANC to lose significant support among middle-class voters, many of whom could turn to the DA.
Lagardien also questioned the electoral strength of some smaller political parties, describing the Communist Party as having flatlined and the EFF as ineffectual.
PA could overtake ANC in Western Cape
In the Western Cape, Lagardien maintained that the DA was likely to secure a majority of the vote, despite the potential gains of the Patriotic Alliance (PA).
At the time of the interview, the DA was polling at 56.4% in the province, compared with 11.83% for the ANC and 10.86% for the PA.
He said the possibility of the PA overtaking the ANC would represent a significant political shift.
"If the PA overtakes the ANC, it is a massive shift."
However, Lagardien cautioned against drawing firm conclusions from the early figures, with substantial numbers of votes still to be counted nationally.
He reiterated his expectation that the DA would retain the majority in the Western Cape.