South Africa's political landscape is changing as established parties face growing pressure
Political analyst Dr Ongama Mtimka examines changing voter behaviour, the rise of smaller parties and what South Africa's increasingly fragmented political landscape means for coalition governance.
Kabous Le Roux
Political analyst Dr Ongama Mtimka examines changing voter behaviour, the rise of smaller parties and what South Africa's increasingly fragmented political landscape means for coalition governance.
South Africa's political landscape is entering a new phase, with established parties facing growing pressure, smaller political formations gaining ground and coalition politics becoming an increasingly important feature of local government.
Political analyst Dr Ongama Mtimka says the 2026 local government elections are highlighting changing voter behaviour, including growing disengagement among traditional ANC supporters and the emergence of parties that have broken away from established political formations.
Speaking to 702/CapeTalk on Thursday morning, as the counting of votes continued, Mtimka said voter turnout was proving particularly important for the country's biggest political parties.
Although the final turnout figures were not yet available, he pointed to an emerging pattern in which turnout appeared higher in Democratic Alliance strongholds, while areas traditionally associated with the ANC and other parties recorded slightly lower participation.
"The pattern seemed to be that in the DA strongholds, we had such a higher turnout," Mtimka said.
He added that this was significant because the DA had been able to match the ANC in several metropolitan areas partly by securing stronger margins in its traditional strongholds.
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Established parties face a changing electorate
Mtimka said voter disengagement among people who would traditionally have supported the ANC remained a significant trend.
Rather than necessarily switching their allegiance to another party, some former ANC voters appeared to be staying away from the polls.
"Yes, this has been a significant trend that's taken place," he said.
However, he noted that the emergence of parties that had splintered from the ANC was also contributing to some movement between political formations, albeit marginally.
The early election picture showed the ANC and DA competing closely in the national count, while smaller parties, including the Patriotic Alliance, Freedom Front Plus and ActionSA, were also securing representation.
The results were still preliminary, with only 9% of the votes counted nationally when the interview took place.
Coalition politics enters a new phase
The increasingly fragmented political landscape is also raising questions about how parties will approach coalition negotiations, particularly in major metropolitan areas where no single party is expected to secure an outright majority.
Asked who the DA should consider partnering with if it emerged as the biggest party in Gauteng, Mtimka cautioned against concluding before the final results were known.
He said parties needed to consider not only whether they could form coalitions, but also whether those arrangements would be sustainable.
"I think it's still early to say because that, to me, is also going to depend on potential viability and sustainability of whatever coalition gets constituted," he said.
Mtimka argued that South Africa's experience with coalition governments over the past decade should have taught political parties important lessons about negotiations and the consequences of their choices.
He said viability should be judged by what it takes to establish a coalition, while sustainability should be measured by what is required to keep it functioning.
This, he suggested, should become a much bigger consideration than it had been in previous coalition negotiations.
Parties may need to rethink their coalition strategies
Mtimka also questioned whether opposition parties should continue approaching coalition negotiations primarily through the lens of keeping the ANC out of power.
He said the approach of "anyone but the ANC", which had initially characterised the strategies of several opposition parties, had proved difficult to sustain.
He pointed to developments surrounding the national Government of National Unity as an example of how political circumstances could change and create opportunities for different coalition arrangements.
The ANC, he argued, had been in a stronger position to invite other parties into coalitions, contributing to the formation of the GNU.
Mtimka said parties should not rule out GNU-style arrangements at local government level, although he was not suggesting that such an approach should automatically become the preferred option.
His analysis points to a potentially significant shift in South African politics: coalition negotiations may increasingly be determined not simply by which parties can secure power, but by which combinations can provide stable and sustainable governance.