Who governs when nobody wins?
Jonathan Moakes said coalition politics at local government level had been particularly challenging since 2016.
Vicky Stark
Who governs when nobody wins?
With no political party expected to secure an outright majority in several major metros, the real battle for power could begin after South Africa's local government election results are declared.
702's Bongani Bingwa spoke to Jonathan Moakes, Director of the SABI Strategy Group who said the country's political landscape had become increasingly fragmented.
"We've had a multitude of polls over the past month that have indicated that particularly in metros, such as Johannesburg, Tshwane, and possibly even Ekurhuleni, no party is going to get a majority," Moakes said.
He said the real negotiations would begin once the results were officially declared. Parties would then have just 14 days to negotiate before council meetings had to take place.
Moakes said coalition politics at local government level had been particularly challenging since 2016. He attributed some of the instability to the way negotiations were conducted.
Previous coalition talks were often decentralised.
"Unfortunately, they tend to be about positions rather than a programme of action," he said.
Moakes said reports that the ANC and DA were considering centralising coalition negotiations were encouraging.
However, he warned that parties would have to move beyond deciding who becomes mayor, deputy mayor or speaker.
He said negotiations should start with an agreement on what the new administration intends to achieve.
"Coalition agreements can work, but they need agreements. They need enforceable agreements. They need to be binding," Moakes said.
He pointed to unresolved municipal problems, including refuse collection and labour disputes, as examples of issues that should be addressed in coalition agreements.
Moakes said the proposed coalitions bill had sought to introduce binding agreements and allow more time for negotiations.
He noted that countries such as Germany could spend months negotiating coalition agreements.
Ultimately, he said, parties risk further punishment at the polls if they fail to put residents and service delivery first.
"It's very, very much a last-chance saloon for a number of parties in this election," he said.
He said parties that failed to prioritise residents could be punished even more severely in future elections.